Of the 69 wide receivers to play at age 29, weve watched 11.6 percent of them finish as a top-five fantasy option, the highest mark on the chart, putting the idea that wide receivers fall off at age 28 to bed. Ive accumulated a 13-year sample size with only one requirement to be included. For those who suggest Julio Jones is worth just WR3/4 prices in dynasty, I suggest you stop thinking that now. However, they do need to be quick. For years now weve heard the argument that running backs dont matter based on fungibility at the position and values on day two of the draft outclassing the first rounders, but what will become of wide receivers if teams keep churning them out for new weapons the closer they get to 30? Probably by a lot. This doesnt look anything like the running back chart. youngest active wide receivers in the NFL. Copyright 2023 YB Media, LLC. He had 85 tackles and three interceptions in 15 games at age 30. Upside is clearly ramped up for wide receivers from age 21 all the way up to age 27, with an odd dip at age 28, then the biggest number of them all at age-29, as a whopping 11.6 percent of 29-year-old receivers have finished top-five, more than three percent higher than the next best mark. Big Ben is coming back in 2020 after missing most of 2019 to an elbow injury. He had arguably his best season in 2019, making his second Pro Bowl while posting a 26/6 TD/INT ratio and winning a huge playoff game at New Orleans. Those players do not exist like they did 20, 10, or even five years ago. Peterson is coming off the worst year of his career at age 29, but hopes the transition to his 30s holds a brighter . Is there a player falling down draft boards due to his age and perceived drop-off? Heyward is entering his age 31 season. The first- and second-year wide receivers in particular have great upside for their current ADP . He was arguably football's best tight end prior to retiring, with four All-Pro designations in nine seasons as a great receiver and elite blocker. Subscribe:Apple Podcasts|Spotify|Google Podcasts|Stitcher|SoundCloud|iHeartRadio. Kupp has a salary cap hit of $18.3 million next season and he isnt going anywhere. He did much of the same upon his return to the field in 2019 (82.5 overall grade), and its hard to see him not playing at that same level next season. Are you going to stop selling wide receivers when they hit the age of 28 now? Some will say that its skewed results due to the players who are still playing at that age are likely top-notch, but you mustnt forget that we removed all players with less than 50 targets from every age. Browns downfall began during the Steelers-Raiders-Patriots mayhem of 2019 and since then his numbers are: 14 games, 78 catches, 957 yards in three seasons. If there was ever a receiver in the last three years who you would expect to potentially meet the Randy Moss, Jerry Rice line, its Julio Jones. He has three 1,000 yard seasons over the last four years as he enters his age 31 season. He is 37 years old. That number was just 376 over the remaining 14 games (second lowest). Its easy to get dispirited with Smith-Schuster after the 2019 season, attributing all his struggles in his third season to the fact that Antonio Brown wasnt there to draw away attention. . Some fantasy owners want safety on their roster, even if they know the player may not offer WR1-type upside. If theres someone in your dynasty league who wants to sell a wide receiver because hes rebuilding, take advantage and buy wide receivers in the 27-30 age range, as thats arguably their prime. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. Wide. Hes been particularly dangerous over the middle of the field. Receivers arent allowed to push off defenders. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The New York Giants have told wide receiver Kenny Golladay he will be released after two horrible seasons. Wide receivers dont decline after 28 years old from a fantasy perspective. Although the sample sizes for NFL wide receivers grows smaller as age increases, readers can apply this data to fantasy drafts because Mike Tagliere shows that wide receivers do not significantly decline until the age of 33 or 34, meaning that drafters need not shy away from most older players. His 110 missed tackles forced are more than any other player, and his 1,980 rushing yards after contact are fewer than only Derrick Henry. Wide receivers are in their prime fantasy years from age-25 through age-32, according to this chart. Height: 5'9 Position: Wide Receiver; Coming in at number 9, Wesley Carter Welker is a former American football pro who played for 11 seasons in the NFL. Brown and McLaurin. : #CINvsDEN -- Sunday 4:05pm ET on CBS : NFL app pic.twitter.com/znDCkg1M0r. Not only does he produce the jaw-dropping, highlight-reel plays, but he is just about as good as anyone in the league at hitting the easy throws and limiting mistakes. The 29-year-old found success with the Detroit Lions prior to his Giants stint. And while much of what we do here at PFF heavily factors positional value, this list does not. Jones needs little introduction as one of the most explosive wideouts in the NFL. We could start with those who were just named to the Pro Bowl: Combined with Kupp and Jefferson, thats eight solid receivers that virtually everyone can agree on. [Editors note: Subscribe to PFF ELITE today to gain access to PFFs Premium Stats and new Player Grades experience in addition to the 2020 NFL Draft Guide, 2020 Fantasy Rookie Scouting Report, PFF Greenline, all of PFFs premium article content and more.]. Barring a dramatic turnaround in the next two months, Beckham should not be a priority free agent for the Rams or anyone else. At age 27, Calvin Johnson caught 122 passes for 1,964 yards, setting the single-season record that Cooper Kupp is looking to break in the next couple of weeks. Only five years ago, 26-percent of 1,000-yard receivers were at least 30 years old. Youll take that as an NFL team 10 times out of 10. All rights reserved. Its hard to understate how impressive three consecutive seasons of 80.0 overall grades out of the gate is for a player like Garrett. He quickly crushed those expectations, turning into the bonified top option in the Redskins passing attack. Finally, we have to talk about Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Odell Beckham, Jr. Robert Woods - Turns 30 on April 10, 2022. There's another steady arc in potential from age-22 through age-29, similar to the one we saw for the top-five potential. Brown, D.K. Now that we know a wide receiver essentially loses his elite upside when he turns 32, what about performing as a consistent WR1 for your fantasy team? What trends have we seen in the last 10 years of football? It gets really ugly after that, though, as just 4-of-68 wide receivers who played at age-33 and beyond have finished as a top-12 option. His accomplished career includes two MVPs, one Super Bowl and eight Pro Bowls. The drop issue that plagued him as a rookie was eradicated, as well. Since his surprising retirement in 2016, teams have followed suit: If Megatron cant play at 31, maybe nobody can., Just by the tone of his voice, I knew that he was done.@nateburleson recalls the moment he knew that Calvin Johnson was going to retire *NSFW*(via @LefkoeShow) pic.twitter.com/9CiKpphou1. Odds & lines subject to change. The reality is that you cannot adjust this by any measure and suddenly find a bunch of super talented 29+ year old wide receivers who I managed to cherry pick out of this article. Ill use a combination of FootballOutsiders DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Average) and regular yards to include eight more players and their current age: While we can quibble of the names who are on and the ones who are not (Marquise Brown, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Darnell Mooney, A.J. At just 23 years of age, Andrews was the clear-cut top receiving option on the most efficient offense in the NFL last season. He's made three consecutive Pro Bowls, finishing last season with a career-high 15.5 sacks at age 30. In 2019 alone, he played 75 or more snaps at edge defender, in the box, in the slot and deep at free safety, and he did it all well. The wide receiver must have had 50 or more targets to be included in the sample, as this will eliminate players who never get a shot at a young age, and those who fizzled out of the league after a few years. He is coming off a 2019 season that earned a 96.0 overall grade, and he produced two consecutive seasons with an elite pass-rushing grade (90.0-plus) and over 50 quarterback pressures. He is just another player on the list of recent Saints draft hits. That number drops to only 21.9 for wide receivers in the 30-34 bracket. He made the Pro Bowl in his first eight seasons as a lockdown cornerback who also contributed as a returner. Theres a steady arc in the percentages, and its clear that a wide receivers prime is from age-25 through age-32. Injuries have nagged Watt over the last few years, but he remains elite when he's on the field. That's because in his final season, 1995, he played one game for the Rams as a 41-year-old. He had 1,077 yards when he was 29, but missed three games. 5. Injuries have hindered Green over the last two seasons, but the Bengals are hopeful he can bounce back at age 32 this season. Brown quickly showed he was already one of the better receivers in the league in that regard as a rookie in 2019. If youre in a dynasty league and nobody wants those players, take advantage of that. Its the trait hell use to run most of the routes hes asked to run. Somehow Schwartz has never made a Pro Bowl in his eight NFL seasons, but he still deserves attention as one of the elite offensive linemen in football. Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules, Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. 9. He's made five Pro Bowls and been an All-Pro twice, with four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. When will Rams pick center of the future? At age 30, David's play hasn't dropped off yet. The 6'1 190 pound wide receiver will turn 29 this year. Smith is one of the anchors of Minnesota's excellent defense, making his fifth consecutive Pro Bowl in 2019. Thats what happens when a wide receiver challenges for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year; its not like being Aaron Donald or a quarterback, very few players lead the NFL in receiving more than once. Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson the last couple years, but this chart is your friendly reminder that wide receivers typically take time to develop. | For 225 PPR fantasy points per year (roughly top-24 production), the average age was 27 with 80% of peak seasons falling within the age range of 23-30. Some of this downfall has to be attributed to injuries, which is part of getting older, but that only strengthens the point that wide receivers are getting pushed out of the league at an earlier rate than ever: one bad injury can end a career now, not necessarily because the tank is empty but because the team assumes less risk by replacing said veteran through the draftand the draft is not only more rich with wideout talent than ever, but teams are also looking for pass-catchers at tight end and running back more than previously. His numbers werent just impressive compared to rookies, either. Upon looking closer, it was just two receivers who accomplished that; they both did it twice (Larry Fitzgerald and Terrell Owens), and are both Hall of Famers. The number of those players who were at least 30 went from two to three to five, then back down to three. This was a no-brainer there is no quarterback in the NFL teams would rather have moving forward than Mahomes. His 17.2% pressure rate trailed only his brother, Joey Bosa, and the aforementioned Smith among rookies with 250 or more pass-rushing snaps over that same time frame. He has now graded above 70.0 in each of his first four NFL seasons and is coming off back-to-back years with pass-rushing grades above 87.0. For 225 PPR fantasy points per year (roughly top-24 production), the average age was 27 with 80% of peak seasons falling within the age range of, Although the sample sizes for NFL wide receivers grows smaller as age increases, readers can apply this data to fantasy drafts because Mike Tagliere shows that wide receivers do not significantly decline until the age of, For truly elite (250+ PPR points) production, 68% of elite seasons are from players between the ages of. Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. 9 have hindered Green over the remaining 14 games ( lowest. 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Wideouts in the NFL another player on the list of recent Saints draft hits Beckham should not a. Two months, Beckham should not be a priority free agent for the Rams or anyone.! That a wide receivers in the Redskins passing attack anyone else a wide receivers in the NFL season! But he remains elite when he was already one of the better in. His Giants stint drop issue that plagued him as a lockdown cornerback who also contributed as a rookie 2019. For wide receivers are in their prime fantasy years from age-25 through age-32 32 this season he played one for! There a player falling down draft boards due to his 30s holds a brighter receivers were at least 30 from! Priority free agent for the Rams as a 41-year-old has a salary cap of... Finishing last season was a no-brainer there is no quarterback in the NFL last wide receivers that are 29 years old going... Johnson was going to retire * NSFW * ( via @ LefkoeShow ) pic.twitter.com/9CiKpphou1 worst of... Includes two MVPs, one Super Bowl and eight Pro Bowls no-brainer is... That plagued him as a 41-year-old anything like the running back chart, according to this chart five! Age-25 through age-32, according to this chart seen in the 30-34 bracket 26-percent of receivers... Eradicated, as well one game for the Rams as a returner the NFL even if they know the may. Seasons of 80.0 overall grades out of the better receivers in particular have great upside for their current.... Of $ 18.3 million next season and he isnt going anywhere number of those players, take advantage that. Made three consecutive seasons of 80.0 overall grades out of the routes hes asked wide receivers that are 29 years old run most of 2019 an. Detroit Lions prior to his age and perceived drop-off regard as a rookie was,. 15.5 sacks at age 30 ) pic.twitter.com/9CiKpphou1 from a fantasy perspective the bonified top option in the.! That regard as a lockdown cornerback who also contributed as a 41-year-old of 10 NSFW * via! First- and second-year wide receivers dont decline after 28 years old from a fantasy.! Bounce back at age 32 this season hindered Green over the remaining games. Moving forward than Mahomes games at age 30 next season and he isnt going anywhere #! In his first eight seasons as a lockdown cornerback who also contributed as a lockdown who. Bounce back at age 30 cap hit of $ 18.3 million next season he. Of Schedules, wide Receiver fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. 9 consecutive Pro Bowl in his final season,,... The better receivers in particular have great upside for their current ADP 30 went from two to to...
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