It also helps in fraud preventions. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. 1. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. Having a reliable Lake Powell to back up Lake Mead is crucial especially during a period of uncertainty, Lower Basin users say. As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. And what does that mean for the users on the river? Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. Officials say the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can . The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. The cookie does not store any personally identifiable data. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. Follow me on Substack: https://geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geographic_geoff/Listen to the podcast: https:. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. Lake Powell is in crisis. Future conservation efforts are highly uncertain. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one that provides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in. Dry conditions are the worst theyve been in almost 20 years across the Colorado River watershed, which acts as the drinking and irrigation water supply for 40 million people in the American Southwest. The use of these cookies is strictly limited to measuring the site's audience. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. The river also crosses over the US-Mexico border and two Mexican states, Baja California and Sonora. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. This cookie is native to PHP applications. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. Because of that, its expected that the Department of the Interior'sBureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management, will mandate onesometime next year. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. The story has been updated to reflect this information. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . You cant do that with groundwater. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. 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